{"id":12886,"date":"2024-09-24T07:00:39","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T07:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/?p=12886"},"modified":"2024-09-24T12:43:45","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T12:43:45","slug":"six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers\/","title":{"rendered":"Six Important Ideas about Foresight for Association Decision-Makers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>AUTHOR&#8217;S ATTESTATION: This article was written entirely by Jeff De Cagna AIMP FRSA FASAE, a human author, without using generative AI.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>As of this article\u2019s publication date (9\/24\/24), there are <strong>1924 days<\/strong> remaining in The Turbulent Twenties, and <strong>99 days<\/strong> until this decade\u2019s midpoint on January 1, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Throughout 2024, I have been marking the ten-year milestone of the board\u2019s duty of foresight, a <a href=\"https:\/\/4sightfir.st\/TheDutyOfForesightIsARadicalIdeaPartI\"><strong>still<\/strong><\/a>&#8211;<a href=\"https:\/\/4sightfir.st\/TheDutyOfForesightIsARadicalIdeaPartII\"><strong>radical<\/strong><\/a> idea that got its start with my <a href=\"https:\/\/4sightfir.st\/BlackBerryBreakdown\"><strong><em>Associations Now<\/em><\/strong><strong> article<\/strong><\/a> in the summer of 2014. This month is also the two-year anniversary of the column in which I offered an updated \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/4sightfir.st\/dutyofforesightnextdefinition\"><strong>next definition<\/strong><\/a>\u201d of the duty of foresight that calls on association boards to \u201cstand up for their successors\u2019 futures.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>From the outset, my intention in marking this milestone year has not been to \u201ccelebrate\u201d the duty of foresight or myself. Instead, with the arrival of the second 60 months of The Turbulent Twenties drawing closer every day, I see a crucial inflection point and an opportunity to deliver a renewed and urgent invitation to association boards to <a href=\"https:\/\/4sightfir.st\/ChoosingTheFutureAN2024\"><strong>choose the duty of foresight<\/strong><\/a>, and for all association decision-makers to serve as foresight champions inside their organizations and for our community. It is my fervent hope that this column can contribute to advancing that conversation.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Six Important Ideas about Foresight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>While there are more detailed and complicated definitions of foresight in use today, I prefer a simpler and more focused framing: <strong><em>foresight is an intentional process of learning with the future.<\/em><\/strong> In the work of foresight, we combine data, information, and imagination to spark and propel divergent thinking forward into defined time horizons to anticipate and explore one or more future worlds. Through a process of deep and active questioning, we develop compelling ideas and insights that can be applied today to make better decisions and facilitate our ongoing learning with the future as it unfolds.<\/p>\n<p>Building on this foundational explanation of foresight, I want to share six additional important ideas for all association community voluntary decision-makers, staff partners, and other contributors to consider as they approach the work of foresight in the months and years ahead.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Foresight is a direct challenge to orthodox beliefs\u2014<\/strong>Orthodox beliefs are the deep-seated yet largely invisible assumptions we make about how the world works. More often than not, it is decision-makers\u2019 orthodox beliefs that are the primary source of resistance to prioritizing foresight. Orthodoxy keeps both people and organizations tethered to worlds that no longer exists, and can overwhelm their attention with the untrue and unhelpful noise of the past. A commitment to foresight demands a fearless reckoning with orthodox beliefs to lower their volume while amplifying critical emerging signals of the future.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Foresight is not about making predictions or forecasts\u2014<\/strong>Even with an increased interest in foresight, there remains a disquieting orthodox belief circulating in the association community. This belief views foresight as a futile effort to predict or forecast a future that is unknowable by definition. While some foresight practitioners and futurists do make predictions or create forecasts, these outputs do not capture the deeper purpose of foresight. As expressed through the definition I offer above, the most beneficial impact of foresight is on ongoing intentional learning with the future rather than quantifying the probabilities of specific future outcomes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Foresight must consider a full range of plausible futures\u2014<\/strong>While we use the singular word \u201cfuture\u201d in our daily discourse, the work of foresight operates on the understanding that there are an infinite number of different futures that could unfold. For this reason, association decision-makers must consider the implications of multiple plausible futures at all times. Instead of using organizational energy, time, and other limited resources to describe and perfect a single \u201cpreferred\u201d future, association decision-makers can build more adaptive and resilient organizations by examining and preparing for various favorable, unfavorable, and unthinkable futures for their organizations, fields, and stakeholders and successors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Foresight and strategy are different\u2014<\/strong>Another detrimental association community orthodox belief is the choice to regard foresight mostly as an input to strategy-making. While foresight and strategy clearly are connected endeavors, they are not the same conversation. In a turbulent world, the central purpose of strategy is the pursuit of short-term learning with current stakeholders to enable more meaningful value creation today. In contrast, foresight is about long-term intentional learning that prioritizes the challenges and expectations of our successors and animates the collective stewardship responsibility to leave our organizations and fields better than how we found them for the benefit of successors we will never know personally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Foresight must be a consistent practice\u2014<\/strong>As I wrote in a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/4sightfir.st\/WhyAssociationsNeedFitForPurposeBoards\"><strong>LinkedIn essay<\/strong><\/a>, \u201c[i]f you think the first half of The Turbulent Twenties has been fraught, just wait.\u201d Our community is overdue to recognize that the accelerating pace and intensifying strength of the myriad social, technological, economic, environmental, and political [STEEP] factors and forces are relentlessly reshaping our plausible futures, and we must act now to prepare for whatever happens over the next 1900+ days. With this reality in mind, voluntary association decision-makers need to collaborate with staff partners and other contributors to situate their work in the context of a consistent practice of foresight. To be clear, foresight is not an ancillary activity, an intellectual exercise, or a cultural intervention. It is a core and real-world human and organizational capability for anticipation that we must develop and deploy right away.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Foresight is about reclaiming agency\u2014<\/strong>Orthodox beliefs endure in part because they function as coping mechanisms for boards and other decision-making groups operating under conditions of high anxiety and discontinuity. Over time, however, the commitment to orthodoxy undermines agency in decision-making by reducing the shared sense of confidence in the ability to make, act upon, and demonstrate clear progress toward fulfilling collective choices. By shifting their thinking away from the severe limitations created by orthodox beliefs and toward a more robust orientation toward the future, association decision-makers can reclaim their agency and reassert full responsibility for stewarding their organizations and fields into the future.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Next Column<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In October, I will share three critical concerns toward which association boards and CEOs must direct their attention in the second half of The Turbulent Twenties. Until then, please stay well and thank you for reading.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><div class=\"clear\"><\/div><div class=\"author-info row\"><div class=\"col col-3\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"author-img\" src=\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/07\/Jeff-De-Cagna-web-optimized-headshot.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><div class=\"col col-9\"><div class=\"author-info-content\"><h3>About The Author<\/h3>\n\t\t\t Jeff De Cagna AIMP FRSA FASAE<\/em><\/strong><em>, executive advisor for Foresight First LLC in Reston, Virginia, is an association contrarian, foresight practitioner, governing designer, stakeholder and successor advocate, and stewardship catalyst. In August 2019, Jeff became the 32nd recipient of ASAE\u2019s Academy of Leaders Award, the association\u2019s highest individual honor given to consultants or industry partners in recognition of their support of ASAE and the association community.\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div> <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Jeff can be reached at\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"mailto:jeff@foresightfirst.io?Subject=Association%20Adviser\"><strong><em>jeff@foresightfirst.io<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>, on LinkedIn at\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/jeffonlinkedin.com\/\"><strong><em>jeffonlinkedin.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>, <em>or on Twitter\/X\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/dutyofforesight\"><strong><em>@dutyofforesight<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this column belong solely to the author.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUTHOR&#8217;S ATTESTATION: This article was written entirely by Jeff De Cagna AIMP FRSA FASAE, a human author, without using generative AI. As of this article\u2019s publication date (9\/24\/24), there are 1924 days remaining in The Turbulent Twenties, and 99 days until this decade\u2019s midpoint on January 1, 2025. Throughout 2024, I have been marking the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":151,"featured_media":12887,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,1434],"tags":[1541],"class_list":["post-12886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-features","category-duty-of-foresight","tag-duty-of-foresight"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Six Important Ideas about Foresight for Association Decision-Makers - Association Adviser<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Throughout 2024, I have been marking the ten-year milestone of the board\u2019s duty of foresight, a still-radical idea that got its start with my Associations Now article in the summer of 2014.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Six Important Ideas about Foresight for Association Decision-Makers - Association Adviser\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Throughout 2024, I have been marking the ten-year milestone of the board\u2019s duty of foresight, a still-radical idea that got its start with my Associations Now article in the summer of 2014.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Association Adviser\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-09-24T07:00:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-09-24T12:43:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/shutterstock_2076844117-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeff De Cagna AIMP DAIG FRSA FASAE FNI.Dir\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jeff De Cagna AIMP DAIG FRSA FASAE FNI.Dir\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers\/\",\"name\":\"Six Important Ideas about Foresight for Association Decision-Makers - Association Adviser\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-09-24T07:00:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-09-24T12:43:45+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/#\/schema\/person\/c0f690f087abe9a7f84e2628fbd4e6c1\"},\"description\":\"Throughout 2024, I have been marking the ten-year milestone of the board\u2019s duty of foresight, a still-radical idea that got its start with my Associations Now article in the summer of 2014.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/six-important-ideas-about-foresight-for-association-decision-makers\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.naylor.com\/associationadviser\/\",\"name\":\"Association Adviser\",\"description\":\"Leadership Strategies &amp; 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